As winter approaches, our first TAR of the volume is now in your hands. In this issue we “dig into forecasting” in many facets. You’ll find my in-depth introduction to the Forecasting spread on page 20; there’s enough food for thought to feed your avalanche brain in advance of the upcoming season. I want to especially thank these Forecasting authors: Dale Atkins allowed me to persuade him to sit down and write part 2 of his Uncertainty series, Matt Hartman turned a blog post into a story about Mindset, and Dave Kelly shared his process behind the scenes on a particularly complex forecasting day, and Brad Meiklejohn sent in an unsolicited essay about Uncertainty that might have started the whole process in my mind.

Find me (or any of the Round Table contributors) in the halls at ISSW or write us a note; we’d love to continue the conversation.

Also in this issue you’ll find:

  • Updates from our productive A3 team
  • Obituaries of three of our valued community members
  • A common sense and useful part 1 of 3 Winter Motorized Risk Management from Weston Deutschlander
  • A long-awaited update from a Colorado crew who put time into details and systems for stress mitigation
  • A piece from Russ Costa and Mark Staples that stitches across the lines between cognitive work and slope angle measurement.
  • NAC season summaries introduced by the NAC, from A to part of C. Thanks to a prolific array of contributors, we had to bump the rest of the NAC season summaries (and a few other bits) to the December TAR.

I know I’ll see many of you at ISSW- stop by the A3 booth to say hi. For those of you unable to travel to Bend, my stringers and I will be summarizing what stands out to us as important to different sectors of the avalanche world. We’ll see all those reports in the February TAR, deadline December 1.

Now it’s time to stack the firewood, put the garden to bed, take one more sunlit road tripbefore the snow starts to fly. In the words of Garrison Keillor, “Be well, do good work, and keep in touch.”

— Lynne Wolfe, Editor of The Avalanche Review

ON THE COVER: Crybabies, Mt. Billy Mitchell, Thompson Pass, Valdez, Alaska. The snowpack climate can transition from Maritime to Intermountain to Continental in just 10 miles to either direction from the Valdez Heli Ski Guides base of operations at the Tsaina Lodge. In February of 2022, at the start of our operational season, a deep persistent slab problem existed in the Continental areas of our tenure, while more stable conditions existed in our Intermountain and Maritime climate regions. — Jed Workman